Shanghai Securities: Not afraid of short-term adjustment and adhere to long-term value investment
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Original title: Don’t be afraid of short-term adjustments and insist on long-term value investment □ Shanghai Securities Liu Yiqianchi Yunfei The Shanghai and Shenzhen cities have shrunk severely after the Spring Festival holiday, creating the largest declines in more than four years and fourteen years.
We believe that the shock of the A-share market is mainly caused by the panic caused by the epidemic, but the impact of the epidemic on the market is short-term and will not change China ‘s long-term economic prospects, China ‘s wealth preservation and appreciation requirements, and China ‘sThe development of the capital market and the firm confidence of equity funds will not change the trend of long-term capital entering the market.
In the long run, the short-term benefits caused by the epidemic just provide investors with an opportunity to start trading at a discount.
The reasons are as follows: First, the economy bottomed out obviously, and the long-term positive trend remained unchanged.
From a macroeconomic perspective, as of the end of 2019, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods has remained stable, the producer price index (PPI) for industrial producers has bottomed out, and investment in fixed assets has grown.
At 4%, the gradual upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued, and equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing pushed PMI to continue to stay above the line of ups and downs, and inventory replenishment in areas such as real estate, chemicals, and coal.
From the perspective of the external environment, global monetary policy has shifted to an easing posture, and global manufacturing activities and global trade have also bottomed out and rebounded.
Second, counter-cyclical adjustments will increase, and liquidity will remain reasonably abundant.
The breakout began on the first trading day (February 3) after the Spring Festival holiday1.
The reverse repurchase operation of US $ 2 trillion, a net investment of US $ 150 billion, and a direct bid reduction of 10bp, not only provide sufficient liquidity for the market, but also promote the reduction of MLF and LPR and reduce corporate debt burden.
Considering the current downside of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate, the market expects that the policy support will gradually increase in the future, and the liquidity will continue.
Third, the “new economy” is emerging, and consumption restraints in some industries are temporary.
Breakthroughs. The integration of the Internet and high technology has greatly broken through space constraints.
Online shopping, takeaway, logistics, artificial intelligence, cloud office, online entertainment and other “new economy” models have been transformed and developed while providing convenience 武汉夜网论坛 to the general public during the first self-segregation.
At the same time, China has entered the ranks of the country’s middle income, and the people’s income has greatly improved compared to before. Consumption restraints caused by infectious diseases in tourism, real estate, and automobiles are temporary and will notChanging the consumption patterns and habits that people have formed for a long time will be effectively compensated after the epidemic.
Fourth, there is an opportunity for a bottom-sweep in the wrongly killed sector, and long-term funds take the opportunity to enter the market.
On February 3, the net inflow of northbound funds was 181.
With 9.1 billion yuan, high-quality leading enterprises in the fields of finance and consumption have become the objects of increasing positions.
In fact, according to the Shanghai Securities News, about 10 billion yuan of funds hit the market on the day.
From the perspective of long-term funds, the impact of the emerging epidemic on the capital market is short-lived, and the long-term trend of A shares is not changed due to short-term shocks.
The large-scale institutions’ initiative to buy against the market has brought additional funds to the market and boosted market confidence. At the same time, investors should re-examine the quality assets that have been killed by mistake.
Large-scale asset allocation Asset allocation is an essential weapon for rational long-term investors, and diversified allocation is not out of date at any time.
For ordinary investors, it is the best policy to respond to a changing future with a balanced multi-configuration structure, but qualified investors should participate in market investment in a more proactive manner, instead of ensuring that risks are effectively controlled.The point is that any desperate behavior is worth vigilance.
In the long run, equity types are still supplementing fixed income types as a whole, domestic equity is overseas equity, and the allocation of safe-haven assets such as gold in a market full of uncertainty can effectively reduce portfolio variables and should be held as a decentralized tool.
Equity funds: Focus on fund risk control and stock selection capabilities. We believe that companies with core assets, abundant cash flow, and stable performance growth will continue to allocate the mainstream for the future.
At the same time, the short-term market volatility or persistence is expected to appear in the future, and the fund’s risk control ability and stock selection ability are particularly important.
In the investment direction, the “new economy” industry funds represented by 5G, biomedicine, new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, as well as the rising trend of the economy, and estimated reasonable dividends and industry funds, while grasping the industries that were killed by mistakeAnd investment opportunities for quality companies.
Fixed income funds: The future risk-free assets of selected high-performance fund managers are expected to continue to grow, and the growth of long-term and short-term spreads will increase, making them more suitable for the allocation of short- and medium-term bonds.
In the short-term and short-term of the stock market, convertible bonds may be estimated and liquidity may be killed. However, based on the long-term optimism of equity assets, convertible bond fund products are still positive.
Under the influence of the epidemic, low credit risk has increased in the short term, but in the long run, the stabilization of economic fundamentals and the improvement of corporate profitability, or the further improvement of the valuation of low-grade credit bonds.
Allocation investors are advised to follow the path of selection from fund companies to fund managers to specific products, focusing on fund companies with excellent bond team configuration and investment research capabilities. Such companies often have large credit teams and internal rating systemsWith the ability to identify the types of bonds, the management scale of specific fund company bond funds can be an important reference.
QDII Funds: Improve portfolio anti-risk capabilities and allocate equity assets in regions where economic recovery is beginning to reduce the variable risk of portfolios, but be wary of overestimation but weak fundamentals. Retracement risks caused by weak fundamentals; for Hong Kong stocks, short-term shock risksHowever, in the long run, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a historically low level, and the reform of the full circulation of Hong Kong stocks will help release the circulation value of H-shares listed by mainland companies in Hong Kong. Hong Kong stocks QDII products have long-term allocation value;From a perspective, gold products currently have a higher allocation value; in terms of crude oil, the price of crude oil futures has almost fallen near the long-term support level, and opportunities are likely to emerge in the short term. However, due to the decline in global oil demand, long-term investment in crude oil QDII should beBe cautious.