Xinhua Insurance (601336) 2019 Annual Results Express Comment: The rapid development of the agent team is poised for “second takeoff”
On February 2, the company issued a pre-announcement of its results, and in 2019 realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company 142.
About 6 trillion, an increase of about 80% each year; deducted non-attribution net profit 127.
5 trillion, an increase of about 60% each year.
It is expected that Q4 will return to the net profit of the mother 12.
About 5.7 billion, an increase of about 471% in ten years, about -48.
86%; it is estimated that Q4 deducted non-attributed economic profit is about 15.
72 ‰, an increase of about 615% in ten years, or -36.
In 2019, the company realized premium income of 1381.
3 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
96%, of which Q4 premium income was 302.
180,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
64%, down 10 from the previous month.
Investment Points 1.
Tax preferential policies increase thick and solid performance, and equity investments have improved significantly. In May, the “Announcement on Pre-tax Alternative Policies for Insurance Companies’ Fees and Commission 重庆耍耍网 Expenditures” was released. The company will release new accounting policies applicable to the settlement and settlement of corporate income tax in 2018.The one-off adjustment to the current profit and loss is regarded as non-recurring profit and loss, about 18.
5.1 billion, accounting for 12.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is up 36 in 2019.
07%, the company’s equity investment has improved significantly compared to 2018.
The initial reserve replenishment continued to grow, and to a certain extent, the growth rate of the company’s performance had re-determined its actuarial assumptions. Changes in the accounting estimates in the first three quarters resulted in a decrease in the life insurance liability reserve RMB7.
8.3 billion yuan, long-term health insurance liability reserves increased by 武汉夜生活网 RMB27.
65 million yuan, a total reduction of pre-tax profit for the first three quarters of 201919.
Changes in accounting assumptions will result in a gradual increase in the increase in reserve provisions and curb profit growth.
The number of agents reached a new high. In 2020, NBV is expected to improve the pressure transmission of the industry in 2019, and the number of company agents will increase against the trend.
As of the end of 2019, the number of company agents exceeded 500,000, a record high.
Relative to the increase in agents, the increase in company premiums in 2019.
In the fourth quarter of the merger, the merged company vigorously developed the premium payment on behalf of the bank, and it is expected that the growth rate of NBV in the budget will be at a historical low.
The development of a low-base merger agent team creates a good foundation for the improvement of the NBV growth rate in 2020 and is expected to advance to a growth rate of about 10%.
But we still need to pay attention to the increase in per capita capacity.
The new CEO repositioned, and the “second takeoff” company has formulated a “1 + 2 + 1” strategy, with life insurance business as the main body, wealth management, health care services as the two wings, and technology empowerment as the driver.The company’s goal is to be the first echelon of the industry, with assets exceeding one trillion yuan, scale value increasing simultaneously, and industrial synergy to play its role.
The company repositioned its bancassurance channels, focusing on both scale and value, driving the growth of premiums.
The company’s new job performance demand is high, and its performance in 2020 is worth looking forward to.
5. The short-term impact of the epidemic is limited, and the long-term trend remains unchanged.
The main impact of the epidemic situation was concentrated on the increase of agents, the development of the industry, and the payment of compensation.
, The company ‘s agent increase, exhibition industry, offline training and other activities were affected, but due to the company ‘s “opening door” early progress and online training, online exhibition industry and other measures to offset some distortions, the epidemic is expected to increaseSpeed impact is limited.
The impact of this new type of coronavirus epidemic on insurance claims, the main types of insurance involved include critical illness insurance, life insurance and medical insurance.
Benefits for critical illness insurance need to be determined according to specific insurance clauses, and the overall impact is small; life insurance benefits need to meet criteria such as death or total disability, which ultimately leads to a reduction in the disease situation and limited benefits due to death; medical insurance benefits are subject toThe epidemic situation affects the reimbursement of reimbursable medical insurance products on the market.
However, as the three national ministries and commissions have clearly stated that the medical expenses of patients are covered by medical insurance and financial subsidies, the company’s overall pressure on compensation payments is not great.
In the long run, the epidemic situation is in danger, and it will inevitably intensify the speed of innovation in the insurance industry in the industry. The long-term trend will remain unchanged. It is expected that the inflection point will be in the second half of the year. In the future, insurance premiums, especially health insurance, have broad development space.
We believe that the number of agents and strategic positioning of the company are highly foundational for development, and the long-term positive trend remains unchanged.
Budget estimates and investment recommendations The company recently received the CBRC’s “Reply from the China Banking Regulatory Commission on Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd.’s Issuance of Capital Supplemental Bonds” (Yinbao JianfuNo. 30), and agreed to the company’s disclosure in the national interbank bond market.Issuing 10-year redeemable capital supplement bonds with an issue size not exceeding RMB 10 billion, and requiring the company to complete the issuance measures within 6 months after obtaining the issuance license from the competent authority.
The company intends to use the funds raised from the issuance of capital supplementary bonds to supplement capital to improve solvency.
In the future, the company’s thinking and strategy for the development of security and wealth management products will change, with equal emphasis on value and scale, and long-term development is expected.
From the current point of view, the company’s P / EV is at a relatively low historical level and is expected to continue to benefit from the increase in product income and premiums brought by business transformation and high-cash value products. We look forward to achieving further success in the realization of the new session.
We expect the diluted EPS for 2019-2021 to be 4, respectively.
86 yuan, P / EV is 0.
52 times, underestimated the rebound configuration variety, maintaining the “recommended” rating for the company.
Risk reminder: Sino-US trade friction risk; market systematic decline risk; performance is less than expected risk; long-term interest rate downside risk; regulatory trend risk; risk of regulatory approval for issuing capital supplementary bonds; risk of serious epidemic spread